John Wallace 2nd blog post
John Wallace
Professor Shirk
POLS 170
2 March 2022
Russia and the fading dream of a great power
Just 80 years ago, The world was divided into two blocs of influence, East against West, Communism against Capitalism, Russia against the United States. This political deadlock became known as the cold war, creating a tenuous balance that persisted for nearly 50 years until the fall of the Soviet Union.
In the 30 years since then, however, the world has changed dramatically. Leaving Russia’s greatness to seemingly fall into the hallowed halls of history. In the wake of the collapse of the soviet union, the western NATO alliance quickly recruited former members of the warsaw pact and fledgling breakaway states alike.
In doing so, America and its NATO allies greatly reduced Russian influence over its former allies. Years of economic woes and political upheaval in Russia further cemented how far it had fallen from its time of grace. However, in recent years, it seems as if Russian leader Vladimir Putin is committed to reversing this trend with the hopes of eventually turning Russia back into a world power. Capable of asserting itself as a bulwark against NATO and the Liberal world order.
The Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014 are proof of this. Both times, Russia started these operations in part to deter potential NATO influence in these nations, while also securing their own interests. Both actions saw limited resistance in the face of overwhelming Russian military superiority, but now, it seems as if Russia has bitten off more than it can chew.
The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine can clearly be seen as a test for the international standing of Russia, and it would certainly not be a secret to say that Russia is failing this test. Ukrainian resistance and morale is strong, even in the face of the technologically superior Russians. The liberal order of the world and NATO is united in their opposition to the war, a prospect that serves as a proverbial deathblow to Russian influence in Europe.
Before the war in Ukraine, Russia leveraged its large energy reserves to create a rift in the NATO alliance. In doing so, many European countries held back on their sanctions after the 2014 seizure of Crimea. The most beneficial of these relationships was that of Germany, however, this policy has burst in flames amid the indefinite suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. This move is sure to greatly damage Russia’s influence in the years to come.
With the collapse of Russian influence in Europe and the beginning of difficulties on the front. Many have taken to calling Russia “A second-rate military power”, labeling it as a step below nations such as the USA and China. Paul Krugman from the new york times arguing “Before Putin invaded Ukraine, I might have described the Russian Federation as a medium-size power punching above its weight in part by exploiting Western divisions and corruption, in part by maintaining a powerful military” – “Putin may well take Kyiv. But even if he does, he will have made himself weaker, not stronger. Russia now stands revealed as a Potemkin superpower, with far less real strength than meets the eye.”( Krugman 1)
In starting this war, Vladimir Putin has dramatically damaged Russia’s reputation on the world stage, inviting the same economic woes and political upheaval that led to the fall of the previous communist regime. Russia's newfound weakness makes decisions such as Putin putting it’s nuclear forces on high alert showcases a deep and growing fear in Russian leadership. Vladimir Putin and Russia are in a race against the clock, and with every passing minute, they lose their leverage on the world stage.
Works cited
Jordans, Frank. “Ukraine-Russia: Germany Suspends Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline.” ABC News, ABC News Network, 22 Feb. 2022, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-russia-germany-takes-steps-halt-nord-stream-83038020.
Krugman, Paul. “Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 1 Mar. 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html.
John,
ReplyDeleteYou bring up an interesting point of how he is allowing history to repeat itself
He feels entitled to invade/take Ukraine because it used to be a part of the Soviet Union. Putin may think that he is restoring Russia to its former greatness in invading Ukraine, but in actuality, he is totally crushing his economy (along with his chance of regaining Russia's sphere of influence). I think that he jumped the gun on invading Russia in an attempt to salvage Russia's reputation as a former superpower and in doing so, he has caused his country to lose leverage/status. I totally agree with the fact that Putin's invasion actually proves him to be extremely weak and fearful (hence why he was so quick to pose threats of nuclear weapons). The fact that he is boasting of nuclear weapons and threatening reveals a deep insecurity/weakness in Russian leadership. It seems like all of his efforts will be counterproductive and further damage Russia's reputation on the world stage. Given the fact that the Russian economy has been in freefall for the past week or so, do you think that the time of Russia's economy collapsing is near? Does this show that globalization and advanced technology have made sanctions more potent? Will these sanctions seriously affect him/change his mind once he realizes that the invasion is making him look weaker?
Interesting. I would say there are a lot of strategies in international relationship, especially on the part as you said: "The world was divided into two blocs of influence, East against West, Communism against Capitalism, Russia against the United States." I agree with you on the point of 2014 Crimea Issue, but I also would like to say that the U.S. cannot afford to play as a bystander on the current Russia-Ukraine issue. I am glad that you pointed out the opposite relationship on the current world structure, that Russia actually has lots of "enemies". We all could see the consequence if Ukraine joined NATO, which could be a lethal threat toward Russia. In my opinion, it is just all about strategy. The U.S. can force Russia to make the decision (whether picking which side will be destructive to Russia, either economically or morally) through NATO. We can say "it is Ukraine's right to join NATO", but it is also clear that the real reason behind such an action.
ReplyDeleteMy apology if my statement sounds mean, but I am just trying to be objective here. My core idea is that those strategies played by politicians always harm those innocent people. Now, poor Ukrainians are going to lose their hometown just because of the conflict between big countries in the world.
I wholeheartedly agree Kevin. The USA and especially the Russian elite pushed Russia into a lose-lose situation. Where backing down was seen as the worse option for Russia. In doing so, however, Ukrainian citizens are the true losers of this conflict. The people of Ukraine are suffering due to the competing influences of Russia and America, just has so many others during the many proxy conflicts that encompassed the cold war.
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