Blog Post #2 - Brooke Wallace

                            
                                 To Sanction or Not to Sanction: How Effective are they Really?

   The invasion of Ukraine has shaken up liberal world order as the consequences continue to ripple across the globe. The recent events have provoked the Western World to act promptly against Russia. Earlier this week, the United States imposed economic sanctions in an attempt to dissuade Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine. Specifically, they target Russian banks and elites, further separating Russia from the global banking system. However, some experts think that a tougher response is needed to stop Putin from continuing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Both forms of coercion, coercion simply refers to compelling an adversary through the use of threats whereas deterrence is a way to dissuade someone from doing something. The presumption is that it is harder to compel than to deter. The US’s behavior regarding the sanctions exemplifies a deterrence strategy. The problem is that Russia is big enough to sustain the current sanctions imposed by the West unlike other countries. So, we must ask ourselves one question: are sanctions enough to actually stop Putin? There is a fine line between appeasement and actually giving him something to stop him. I think that there has to be a way that Putin can save face without having to conquer land. Take, for example, Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.  He has made it clear that President Biden’s sanctions will not affect him. Although I believe that the US needs to impose harsher sanctions on Russia, I also see the dangers of backing Putin into a corner with no escape. Biden has said that the new sanctions imposed have exceeded SWIFT (system used to transfer money around the world). Vladimir Putin looks like a genius but he is not a very effective gambler himself. He gambled in the 2016 elections and with airstrikes in Syria. The US imposed sanctions after Russia tried to meddle in our elections in favor of Donald Trump. If the liberal world order (one that the US thrives in) is going to survive, there needs to be a lot more done to hinder Putin. The US and its allies through NATO have levied sanctions on Russia’s central banks in the hopes that it will deter their leader. Perhaps they could place a more direct sanction on Putin to get the message across that there will be serious repercussions on Russia’s economy. The Sanctions Paradox uncovers the weaknesses of sanctions and why they oftentimes tend not to be effective. The decision to put heavier sanctions on Russia is multifaceted: if we decide to push Putin into a corner with no escape, our own sanctions could backfire on us causing the US economy to take a hit. North Korea, on the other hand, is not a part of the global economy and least likely to be hurt from sanctions (Shirk Discussion). On the other hand, you can hurt the countries that hurt you the most. According to Insider, “America is weaponizing the US dollar". Though true that sanctions seem to work more in deterrence, it seems that long term sanctions (like the US and their allies have imposed on Russian economy) have a perverse effect and go against their intentions. The current sanctions on Russian elites and their families are targeting those who are close to Putin. Given his past experience of invasions (Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and now, Ukraine), the US should impose more direct sanctions on Putin instead of solely focusing on pressuring his inner circle. Putin keeps replicating behaviors that call for sanctions, and he will continue to do so unless he is personally sanctioned.





Citations:

Russia Sanctions Will Hurt the US 'in a Profound Way': Ken Griffin (businessinsider.com)

The year 2014 called, it wants its ineffective sanctions against Russia back | Washington Examiner

Comments

  1. Kameron SchrefflerMarch 8, 2022 at 12:17 PM

    Brooke, I think your blog post is very well written and you make several good points. I totally agree that this problem is multifaceted. You mentioned that the current sanction imposed by the United States are not hurting Russia, saying that we should impose harsher sanctions. As I mentioned in my blog post I believe such action is not necessary right now. I am not claiming that the current sanctions are strong, but other sanctions may escalate the situation as mentioned. Overall, your blog post was very strong.

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    1. Brooke WallaceMarch 9, 2022 at 5:16 PM

      Thank you, Kameron! I read your blog post and I totally agree with you that the US should not send troops to Ukraine. However, I question whether the current sanctions will remain adequate as time goes on - do you think that regardless of Putin's next move, we should hold back and not induce more sanctions (considering the mistakes made in Iraq)?

      Delete
  2. Ciara FarrellMarch 8, 2022 at 2:14 PM

    I agree with what was said in this post, as the US needs to work harder to stop russia with sanctions while also being cautious not to push them so far down that Putin feels like his choices are taken away. Putin is clearly a very forward and dangerous person, so making him feel as though his power is gone, would be costly. Putin is putting on a face of bravery by saying the US sanctions do not affect him, when we know this is not true. Sanctions are in most cases going to hurt a country whether or not he wants to admit that. I think if the US continues and more sanctions are brought into place then Putin will be left with limited options. Being cautious should be the main concern of the US as Putin needs to feel like he can get out of the situation while also feeling like his power remains in the eyes of others. Do you think is it possible that the US can continue to impose more sanctions without pushing Putin too far? I also believe that the decision to not send troops, and rather impose sanctions is the best decision currently for the US as doing so would start something greater than what the US could be ready for.

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    1. Brooke WallaceMarch 9, 2022 at 6:13 PM

      I agree that the decision to send troops could start something greater than what the US is ready for. After reading the comments, I am starting to step back a little from my position of imposing harsher sanctions because the current ones seem to be working quite well right now. I think that we should still consider imposing harsher sanctions if he does not withdraw/step down a bit. Imposing harsher sanctions at this point could push him too far off the end and cause him to react irrationally (even more so than usual). I think I might have downplayed the serious effects of the US and their allies' sanctions because it really seems like the Russian economy is taking a hit at the moment. As of right now, I believe that the best option for the US is to keep a tough face for the world and not show that Putin's threat of nuclear warfare intimidates them - along with the current tough sanctions in place.

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  3. John WallaceMarch 9, 2022 at 8:37 AM

    Some great points all around, But I also believe that it is clear that Russia's economy is tanking from sanctions. Right now, The Russian Ruble has declined to be worth less than 1 cent. Sanctions were ineffective against countries like Iran and North Korea, but unlike them. Russia's economy is heavily intertwined with the world at large, making sanctions extremely effective. However, this is also bound to cause negative effects for global commerce as well. The worse Russia's economy gets, the more desperate their leadership will become. This will likely result in more civilian casualties which throws the question of human rights on the table in regards to sanctions.

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    1. Brooke WallaceMarch 9, 2022 at 5:12 PM

      Thank you, you make a valid point that in the past, sanctions have been proven ineffective, but the Russian economy is clearly taking a major hit (given the worth of the Rubble has crashed). As you had mentioned in your blog post regarding the fear in Russian leadership, I can see how current sanctions are working in the sense that they will result in more casualties/cause Russia's economy to be in free fall. Your comment is thought provoking.

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