Blog Post #5 - Brooke Wallace

                             Game Theory Through the Russia-Ukraine War: How will Negotiations Go?   

    Though we may not realize it, we use game theory in our everyday lives. Game theory – the study of strategic decisions – uncovers more about politics and society than meets the eye. Recently, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that he wants to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin to try to put an end to their long-simmering conflict. With the threat of nuclear war and WW3 looming, game theory proves that a roadmap to peace remains attainable (Bloomberg). I will be using game theory to discuss how it could tell us more about how the negotiations will pan out. Economist Alexander Wolitzky states that “While conditions of mistrust can lead to political violence, they may also change as antagonists better understand their opponents, leading to an eventual reduction of hostilities.” Wolitzky uses game theory to build models of institutions, networks, and social dynamics (MIT). Game theory can suggest likely next moves and how it will ripple through the global economy. Both sides are analyzing their preferred passive or aggressive options and essentially, their consequences in Ukraine today. As shown, negotiations will be key in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

    Although the whole process will be very difficult with Russia, they must try to reach some middle ground to ensure both parties are somewhat content. This is where game theory comes into play: it can promote cooperation between two parties and show Putin the costs of his actions, some of which include harsh sanctions and their tanking economy. Knowing that they will most likely have future affairs will dictate their current decisions and actions. However, this goes two ways: a country who might not envision future endeavors with another country (like Russia) will act more in a selfish way and in their own best interests. States are more likely to think about themselves and how they can reap the maximum benefit rather than the best possible outcome for both sides. A deep sense of mistrust and insecurity exists between the Western world and Russia over Putin’s barbaric actions. One could say that Putin jumped the gun on invading Russia in an attempt to salvage Russia's reputation as a former superpower and in doing so, he has caused his country to lose leverage. Putin's invasion actually proves him to be extremely weak and fearful (hence why he was so quick to pose threats of nuclear weapons). The fact that he is boasting of nuclear weapons and threatening reveals a deep insecurity within the Russian leadership. Nonetheless, Ukrainian resistance and morale is strong, even in the face of a superior technology power like Russia. So far, progress on negotiations is not looking too good as the two countries are locked in what game theory calls a ‘zero-sum scenario’: a loss for one side constitutes a gain for the other side. Taking a game-theory approach, Russia must know that it cannot actually win this conflict; committing to a full ceasefire is the only possible response unless they want to lose more. On the other hand, Ukraine seems unlikely to let Russia’s territorial gains of eastern and southern Ukraine be seen as a “win”. Russian forces have quickly lost all of their morale and leverage on the world stage, which is why many think that Russia has already lost the war.

       Tensions have continued to escalate as Putin orders more troops in Ukraine and puts Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. The sides seem as polarized as we have ever seen with Russia turning to attrition while the West is slapping harsher sanctions on Putin. In order to achieve the goal of stopping the war, the negotiations must hit on a spectrum of wins and losses that give each side a victory. At this point, it is hard to envision a scenario where Putin will accept that he has lost the war or negotiate. “Nevertheless, negotiations will have to take place on the basis that the Ukraine crisis, however unjustly, constitutes a series of diminished — even “neutral” — wins for both sides. And this will have to be regardless of how unevenly they represent both moral wins and actual losses for Ukraine, and tactical gains and moral losses for Russia,” (EA Worldview). Perhaps the best possible outcome (besides a ceasefire) would be to make Ukraine a special member of the EU. The West should also stipulate in an agreement that Ukraine be bound to organizations like NATO and the EU to not only recognize its independence and territory, but also to help the country defend itself if Russia were to attack again. Then, Russia will know that they risk full-scale war from the EU if they dare to invade Ukraine again. Taking game-theory into consideration, this agreement would ensure Ukraine’s peace and ward off future Russian aggression and conflict.

Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/game-theory-shows-path-to-avoid-russia-war-in-ukraine-chart

There Is No Zero-Sum Solution – Perspectives on Peace and Security (carnegie.org)

How Will Ukraine-Russia Negotiations Go? Look to Game Theory for Answers. - EA WorldView