John Wallace Blog Post 5

 John Wallace  

Blog Post 5  

5/3/2022


It has been less than 3 months since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. And so far, it has caused an uproar in the international community over how to respond, particularly in the neighboring European union. 

While many nations in the European Union pledged large amounts of aid for Ukraine, the de facto leader of the bloc remained on the sidelines about the issue despite international pressure. For decades, Germany has not been shockingly ambivalent about Russian advances into Ukraine, with them being noticeably silent during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The unwillingness of Germany to publicly condemn Russia is due to one simple export, Russian Oil. 


For decades now, Germany and many other European countries have been extremely dependent on imported Russian oil. With the dependence rising to nearly 100% of yearly energy consumption with nations such a the Baltic countries, Finland, Bosnia, and Moldova. Germany's large economy stands on a foundation of Russian gas imports with around two-thirds of energy imports coming from Russian pipelines. 

The vast energy resources of Russia have been a powerful source of soft power for the Kremlin, enabling Russia to stave away European opposition to any aggressive moves the regime wishes to perform. For Germany however, it lies in a strategic decision. It’s economy or the common good, Its interests or its morals. Until now, the country has always chosen economic security over its national security. Determined to appease the Russian giant if it ever decided to come knocking. 

Policymakers in the Kremlin likely believed that this trend would continue with the invasion of Ukraine, yet as of yesterday in a sudden turn of events, Germany has expressed its support for a full embargo on Russian coal. While this is only a small part of Germany's massive natural gas imports from Russia, it showcases Germany's willingness to forgo economic security to stand against the Russian government's invasion of Ukraine. For some, this may spell the end of Russian soft power on the European continent as Russia pushes towards a more aggressive foreign policy. On the flip side, however, the loss of Russian oil may encourage countries to push for renewable energy sources to fill the void. It is no secret that changes are afoot in the European continent, and by extension, the world.  


Sources 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/02/energy/germany-russia-oil-embargo/index.html 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/business/germany-russia-oil-gas-coal.html  

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/world/europe/germany-gas-russia-ukraine.html

Comments

  1. Brooke WallaceMay 5, 2022 at 11:25 AM

    John,
    This post was very thought-provoking in that I did not know a ton about the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine. This ties into Kevin's blog post on how it is hard for countries to pick sides when Russia is such a major producer/exporter of oil and gas. I had no idea that the dependence rose to 100% of yearly energy consumption for nations like Finland and the Bosnia. I see your point that the unwillingness of Germany to publicly criticize Moscow is due to their most prized possession, oil. Their natural resources definitely serve as a source of soft power as they are able to ward off European opposition. The possibility of more environmentally friendly alternatives to Russian oil coming out of this is very likely. Russia's actions pose a major threat to their soft power (as seen through their oil) as harsher sanctions are imposed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. John WallaceMay 5, 2022 at 2:20 PM

      I believe it's true that Russia has lost a lot of soft power since the invasion of Ukraine with embargoes as well as large scale freezing of foreign assets. Russia likely hoped for a quick victory in Ukraine where they can install a compliant regime, expecting any sanctions to likely fizzle out over the coming years as it had after the invasion of Crimea.

      However, it seems Russia has lost the prospect of a quick victory, leaving the country with limited options besides military power.

      Delete
  2. CiaraMay 10, 2022 at 12:49 PM

    John
    I think your post brings up some great concerns about relationships shifting due to the invasion of Ukraine. I did not know Germany's dependence on Russia for oil was so severe and the effects this might have on the country. Germany seems to be admitting their doubt that has surfaced from the recent crisis and agrees they poorly assessed Russia, specifically Putin. Germany will put sanctions on Russia but because their relationship they, "want a gradual phase-out" as opposed to immediate break down of their relationship. This might not be the best option for Germany as it is going to cause internal conflict dealing with jobs and money. Germany is now stuck in an internal conflict they will have to figure out within their government without upsetting other countries in the Europe.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61118706

    ReplyDelete

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